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  • CB liquidity still a better explanation of risk asset performance than many fundamentals
  • H1 liquidity injections now fading
  • Market performance - despite some prior 'excess' - largely fading in line
  • Prospects mostly negative but depend on RRP, BoJ and explanation for the prior 'excess'
  • Net capital outflows from China have accelerated sharply in recent months
  • They are now running at a near-2015 rate
  • The only real source of 'inflows' is a drop in prior foreign lending by domestic banks as they divert capital onshore - but even this can be interpreted as a sign of vulnerability
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