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Flows & liquidity analytics

  • Now with added high-frequency charts
  • Up-to-date snapshot of the most important flows & liquidity metrics
  • CB liquidity vs multiple markets
  • Private vs central bank credit
  • Mutual fund+ETF flows
  • CB balance sheet details

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Ten reasons to take profit

  • Many fundamental indicators show a sudden deterioration
  • In combination with markets' Panglossian interpretation of prospects under Trump, these represent reasons to take profit
  • Too much of markets' performance comes from a fiscally-driven surge in fund flows

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Which Trump trades still have juice?

  • Trump's triumph is testament not only to the inadequacies of the Democratic campaign and the electorate's dislike of inflation, but to the popularity of populism globally
  • Trump trades likely to continue at least until inauguration, and conceivably thereafter - unless a bond rout stops them first
  • The right places to position are America-first trades which will benefit from - or at least withstand - higher term premia

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Trump trades look overdone

  • The election remains too close to call
  • But market pricing has moved decisively towards Trump
  • Take profit on Trump trades - or use options instead

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Free clip: Pricing the policy put

  • Free excerpt from 16 Oct webinar
  • Markets' aggressive pricing of a soft landing is matched only by central banks' determination to provide it
  • Yet their dovishness masks a switch from rate tightening and balance sheet easing to rate easing and balance sheet tightening
  • The resultant uncertainty is largely reflected in rates - but leaves opportunities in other markets
  • Available to all; full replay available only to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions.

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Pricing the policy put

  • Markets' aggressive pricing of a soft landing is matched only by central banks' determination to provide it
  • Yet their dovishness masks a switch from rate tightening and balance sheet easing to rate easing and balance sheet tightening
  • The resultant uncertainty is largely reflected in rates - but leaves opportunities in other markets
Presentation cover page

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25, 50 and the path to financial instability

  • The 25 vs 50 rate cut debate has unsurprisingly been focused on the economy
  • But the greater importance lies in the signal the Fed would be sending to markets
  • Leading with a larger move risks reigniting financial exuberance

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Short-term liquidity alert

  • Over the past week central banks drained $300bn in liquidity: as much as in April and more than in August
  • While this was partially reflected in the post-Labor Day selloff, the risk is of more to come
  • Resilient fund inflows are a partial panacea, but risk simply lagging
The great wave of global liquidity passes

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Please stop meddling with my markets

  • The best explanation for markets' summer slump and rapid rebound lies neither with rates nor with the economy
  • It sits - yet again - squarely with swings in central bank liquidity
  • While the resilience of fund flows and cutting of leveraged positions is somewhat reassuring, on balance we still see the support as temporary
cb liquidity vs spx rolling 7d

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Should you believe the bounce?

  • Attempting to explain the market bounce in terms of economic data fails to do justice to the prior sell-off
  • Flows & liquidity indicators once again shed light on the moves
  • On balance they leave us skeptical

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