Research

Sign up to our research email list and gain free access to a recent piece.

To view research in full (except for webinar clips and other pieces labelled ‘free’) you need a paid subscription.

The unbearable momentum of momentum

  • Multiple markets are in melt-up - and for fifteen years, momentum has trumped mean reversion
  • This feels instinctively unhealthy, and rightly so: crowding and herding really are at extremes across asset classes
  • But it is not the sell signal it seems - neither for indices, nor for Momentum itself
  • What crowding changes is the tail, not the trend: the real risk is a correlation spike

Read more »

  • No Comments

Flows & liquidity analytics

  • Now with added high-frequency charts
  • Up-to-date snapshot of the most important flows & liquidity metrics
  • CB liquidity vs multiple markets
  • Private vs central bank credit
  • Mutual fund+ETF flows
  • CB balance sheet details

Read more »

  • No Comments

UST-USD capital flight charts

  • Our favourite US capital flight chart analytics
  • Updated as of date above
  • Valuation & positioning metrics for USTs, USD and gold

Read more »

  • No Comments

Surfing tsunamis

  • The outlook for AI continues to dominate markets
  • But the best insights come from first-hand experience
  • This piece is free to view

Read more »

  • One Comment

Free clip: Investing amid lawlessness

  • Free clip from 28 Apr webinar
  • From oil above $120 to a Fed Chair who can't trust a "closed" investigation, short term is driven by war and whim
  • But the slide towards lawlessness is structural — not just Trump, not just populists
  • Investors keep wanting to assume continuity in a world where the rules themselves have become negotiable
  • First 15 minutes free to view; full version only for clients with Group Webinar and One-on-one subscriptions

Read more »

  • 2 Comments

Investing amid lawlessness

  • It's not just the fog of war
  • The drivers of lawlessness are structural
  • Implications for investors
Presentation cover page

Read more »

  • No Comments

Nowhere to hide

  • The turmoil in markets says as much about positioning as it does about stagflationary risks or the mercuriality of President Trump
  • The immediate flight into $ cash reflects the unwind of active positions
  • But beneath the surface – and gold’s dramatic fall notwithstanding – the US’ safe-haven status is visibly fraying

Read more »

  • No Comments

From exuberance to unwind

  • War in the Middle East is interacting with prior market vulnerabilities
  • The problem lies neither with the growth outlook nor with the risk of an inflation spike
  • It is that investors suddenly have multiple reasons to shift from what had already been violent risk rotation to outright risk reduction

Read more »

  • No Comments

We need to talk about Kevin (and Isabel)

  • Warshian balance sheet contraction need be neither psychological thriller nor horror flick
  • Non-US jurisdictions combine lower reserves with less money market volatility
  • It's just a question of shifting from supply-led to demand-led liquidity provision

Read more »

  • No Comments

The radicalism of a Warshian Fed

  • Markets are starting to recognize the radicalism of a Warshian Fed
  • But they are pricing its impact too narrowly
  • The key involves understanding the link between balance sheet, rates, and affordability

Read more »

  • No Comments
Share:
Register with Fluent Forms (#4)
Sign up with:
satori insights full logo transparent

Login successful.

Continue reading