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Free clip: When the positives are all priced

  • Free excerpt from 22 Jan webinar
  • The US economy is indeed exceptional
  • But the performance of its markets owes just as much to an extraordinary funnelling of fund flows
  • Dissecting the drivers of these flows sheds crucial light on the durability or otherwise of the risk rally
  • Free to view by all; full replay available only to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions

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When the positives are all priced

  • Where consensus sees US exceptionalism
  • We see a funnelling of fund flows
  • Here's how to trade it

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Some shameless self-promotion (free to view)

  • A chart of publication titles against price action
satori publication dates and titles against hyg prices

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What role for liquidity in 2025?

  • It is tempting to look at the performance of US equities in 2H24 and conclude that central bank liquidity no longer matters for markets
  • But a closer examination of both other markets and shorter timescales suggests this would be a mistake
  • It instead highlights the predominant role currently being played by fund flows and US exceptionalism
  • While it is possible to paint scenarios where liquidity contributes to a melt-up in risk in early 2025, on balance we see it as one of a number of reasons to be skeptical of the bullish consensus
us equities appear to decouple from cb liquidity

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Ten reasons to take profit

  • Many fundamental indicators show a sudden deterioration
  • In combination with markets' Panglossian interpretation of prospects under Trump, these represent reasons to take profit
  • Too much of markets' performance comes from a fiscally-driven surge in fund flows

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Which Trump trades still have juice?

  • Trump's triumph is testament not only to the inadequacies of the Democratic campaign and the electorate's dislike of inflation, but to the popularity of populism globally
  • Trump trades likely to continue at least until inauguration, and conceivably thereafter - unless a bond rout stops them first
  • The right places to position are America-first trades which will benefit from - or at least withstand - higher term premia

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Trump trades look overdone

  • The election remains too close to call
  • But market pricing has moved decisively towards Trump
  • Take profit on Trump trades - or use options instead

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Free clip: Pricing the policy put

  • Free excerpt from 16 Oct webinar
  • Markets' aggressive pricing of a soft landing is matched only by central banks' determination to provide it
  • Yet their dovishness masks a switch from rate tightening and balance sheet easing to rate easing and balance sheet tightening
  • The resultant uncertainty is largely reflected in rates - but leaves opportunities in other markets
  • Available to all; full replay available only to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions.

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Pricing the policy put

  • Markets' aggressive pricing of a soft landing is matched only by central banks' determination to provide it
  • Yet their dovishness masks a switch from rate tightening and balance sheet easing to rate easing and balance sheet tightening
  • The resultant uncertainty is largely reflected in rates - but leaves opportunities in other markets
Presentation cover page

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25, 50 and the path to financial instability

  • The 25 vs 50 rate cut debate has unsurprisingly been focused on the economy
  • But the greater importance lies in the signal the Fed would be sending to markets
  • Leading with a larger move risks reigniting financial exuberance

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