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Which Trump trades still have juice?

  • Trump's triumph is testament not only to the inadequacies of the Democratic campaign and the electorate's dislike of inflation, but to the popularity of populism globally
  • Trump trades likely to continue at least until inauguration, and conceivably thereafter - unless a bond rout stops them first
  • The right places to position are America-first trades which will benefit from - or at least withstand - higher term premia

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Trump trades look overdone

  • The election remains too close to call
  • But market pricing has moved decisively towards Trump
  • Take profit on Trump trades - or use options instead

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Free clip: Pricing the policy put

  • Free excerpt from 16 Oct webinar
  • Markets' aggressive pricing of a soft landing is matched only by central banks' determination to provide it
  • Yet their dovishness masks a switch from rate tightening and balance sheet easing to rate easing and balance sheet tightening
  • The resultant uncertainty is largely reflected in rates - but leaves opportunities in other markets
  • Available to all; full replay available only to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions.

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Pricing the policy put

  • Markets' aggressive pricing of a soft landing is matched only by central banks' determination to provide it
  • Yet their dovishness masks a switch from rate tightening and balance sheet easing to rate easing and balance sheet tightening
  • The resultant uncertainty is largely reflected in rates - but leaves opportunities in other markets
Presentation cover page

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25, 50 and the path to financial instability

  • The 25 vs 50 rate cut debate has unsurprisingly been focused on the economy
  • But the greater importance lies in the signal the Fed would be sending to markets
  • Leading with a larger move risks reigniting financial exuberance

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Short-term liquidity alert

  • Over the past week central banks drained $300bn in liquidity: as much as in April and more than in August
  • While this was partially reflected in the post-Labor Day selloff, the risk is of more to come
  • Resilient fund inflows are a partial panacea, but risk simply lagging
The great wave of global liquidity passes

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Please stop meddling with my markets

  • The best explanation for markets' summer slump and rapid rebound lies neither with rates nor with the economy
  • It sits - yet again - squarely with swings in central bank liquidity
  • While the resilience of fund flows and cutting of leveraged positions is somewhat reassuring, on balance we still see the support as temporary
cb liquidity vs spx rolling 7d

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Should you believe the bounce?

  • Attempting to explain the market bounce in terms of economic data fails to do justice to the prior sell-off
  • Flows & liquidity indicators once again shed light on the moves
  • On balance they leave us skeptical

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Mind the exits

  • The increase in VaR is sparking a broad-based, and potentially indiscriminate, unwinding of leveraged positions
  • The first question is which other leveraged positions are at risk
  • The second question is whether fund flows will hold up
  • Central bank rescue easing or liquidity packages are likely only with a much bigger sell-off or more obvious signs of systemic leveraged distress

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What rotation can’t cure

  • The violent rotation in equities is sparking hopes of a fundamentally-driven rally
  • It has been aided by record fund inflows and a spike in CB liquidity
  • But the details of both the flows and the liquidity leave us skeptical
  • Expect the rotation to continue, but not the rally

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