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Free clip: Meaning, margins and momentum

  • Free clip from 15 Jul webinar
  • Bullish on AI tech does not mean bullish the market price
  • What was holding the rally up was a mixture of elevated margins expectations, momentum-chasing and dip-buying
  • This is significantly more fragile than a rally based on fundamentals – as the rollover in one "hot" asset after another increasingly shows
  • First 15 minutes free to view; full version only for clients with Group Webinar and One-on-One subscriptions

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Webinar: Meaning, margins and momentum

  • Webinar Wed 15 July 1400 Lon / 0900 NY
  • Bullish on AI tech does not mean bullish the market price
  • What really holds the rally up is a mixture of elevated margins expectations, momentum-chasing and dip-buying
  • But as the rotation in "hot" assets shows, the risk of regime change is real - and may be exacerbated by a Warshian Fed
  • Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions, and to the press

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Flows & liquidity analytics

  • Now with added high-frequency charts
  • Up-to-date snapshot of the most important flows & liquidity metrics
  • CB liquidity vs multiple markets
  • Private vs central bank credit
  • Mutual fund+ETF flows
  • CB balance sheet details

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UST-USD capital flight charts

  • Our favourite US capital flight chart analytics
  • Updated as of date above
  • Valuation & positioning metrics for USTs, USD and gold

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Meaning, margins and momentum

  • AI's potential really is enormous
  • But bullish the tech does not mean bullish the market price
  • The rally's earnings growth rests on borrowed margins
  • What really holds it up is increasingly fragile momentum-chasing and dip-buying

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The unbearable momentum of momentum

  • Multiple markets are in melt-up - and for fifteen years, momentum has trumped mean reversion
  • This feels instinctively unhealthy, and rightly so: crowding and herding really are at extremes across asset classes
  • But it is not the sell signal it seems - neither for indices, nor for Momentum itself
  • What crowding changes is the tail, not the trend: the real risk is a correlation spike

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Surfing tsunamis (free)

  • The outlook for AI continues to dominate markets
  • But the best insights come from first-hand experience
  • This piece is free to view

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Free clip: Investing amid lawlessness

  • Free clip from 28 Apr webinar
  • From oil above $120 to a Fed Chair who can't trust a "closed" investigation, short term is driven by war and whim
  • But the slide towards lawlessness is structural — not just Trump, not just populists
  • Investors keep wanting to assume continuity in a world where the rules themselves have become negotiable
  • First 15 minutes free to view; full version only for clients with Group Webinar and One-on-one subscriptions

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Investing amid lawlessness

  • It's not just the fog of war
  • The drivers of lawlessness are structural
  • Implications for investors
Presentation cover page

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Nowhere to hide

  • The turmoil in markets says as much about positioning as it does about stagflationary risks or the mercuriality of President Trump
  • The immediate flight into $ cash reflects the unwind of active positions
  • But beneath the surface – and gold’s dramatic fall notwithstanding – the US’ safe-haven status is visibly fraying

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