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The long-bond problem

  • The recent "bond rout" would be better described as a long-end bond technical
  • It reflects dwindling pension demand more than existential fears around inflation or debt sustainability
  • Governments should reduce their long-end issuance accordingly
  • Investors should continue to hold steepeners until they do - without necessarily being short duration

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Trading a decaying hegemon

  • The more Trump exerts personal control over US organs of state, the more the US' real power is eroded
  • The main mystery is why this is still not being priced into markets
  • Part of the answer revolves around the amorality of capitalism, and prospects for more easy money
  • But much is attributable to the extreme and abrupt nature of credit repricings

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When does liquidity turn to fumes?

  • Commentators argue increasingly that tariffs matter little, and for the return of US and tech exceptionalism
  • But this risks retro-fitting the explanation to the price action
  • An examination of the monetary data points to the exceptional way in which fiscal stimulus has been fuelling equities

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Free clip: Scale and scalability

  • Free clip from 8 Jul webinar
  • The single greatest force driving modern economies, society and politics is scalability
  • It is the common narrative underlying the dominance of big tech, through to the teen mental health crisis and the rise of political polarization and populism
  • Markets tend to treat scale as a largely linear concept
  • But human systems change character at scale - and ultimately have breaking points
  • Clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions should log in to see the full version

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Scale and scalability

  • The single greatest force driving modern economies, society and politics is scalability
  • It is the common narrative underlying the dominance of big tech, through to the teen mental health crisis and the rise of political polarization and populism
  • Markets tend to treat scale as a largely linear concept
  • But human systems change character at scale - and ultimately have breaking points

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More on Section 899

  • Like tariffs, Section 899 continues the Trump administration's declaration of economic war against erstwhile allies
  • As with tariffs, there remain considerable questions about the scale and scope of its eventual application
  • But the net effect should still be to cause foreign investors of all types to question their investments in America

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Shorting spendthrift sovereigns

  • Even before Trump's EU tariff tweets, the risk rally had seemed unconvincing
  • This is in part because bond market developments are so concerning
  • But we think there are better ways to position than outright shorts in 30y govies

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Gradually, then suddenly

  • The bounceback in risk is unconvincing
  • This is in part because of overoptimism that tariffs and economic pain can be avoided
  • It is also because sentiment across markets has moved much more than actual positions
  • But ultimately it is because Hemingway's famous quip applies as much to reserve currencies as to personal bankruptcy

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Free clip: From win-win to lose-lose

  • Free excerpt from 11 Apr webinar
  • It's not just that tariffs are still not priced
  • The increasingly alarming price action in Treasuries and the $ threatens to take down other markets
  • Clients with One-on-One or Group Webinar subscriptions should log in to see the full replay

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From win-win to lose-lose

  • The tariff-man cometh
  • Of net balances and gross misunderstandings
  • Assessing the damage
Presentation cover page

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