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  • Webinar Wed 22 Oct 1430 Lon / 0930 NY
  • The fuel for the rally comes neither from ratres, nor from fundamentals, nor from central bank liquidity
  • It stems from a mix of fiscal stimulus being channelled into fund flows and financial sector leveraging
  • The resultant mix of too much money chasing too few assets both suppresses risk premia and postpones credit events - to a point
  • Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions, and to the press
  • Our favourite US capital flight chart analytics
  • Updated as of date above
  • Valuation & positioning metrics for USTs, USD and gold
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  • Up-to-date snapshot of the most important flows & liquidity metrics
  • CB liquidity vs multiple markets
  • Private vs central bank credit
  • Mutual fund+ETF flows
  • CB balance sheet details
  • The fuel for the rally comes neither from rates, nor from fundamentals, nor from central bank liquidity
  • It stems from a mix of fiscal stimulus being channelled into fund flows and financial sector leveraging
  • The resultant mix of too much money chasing too few assets both suppresses risk premia and postpones credit events - to a point
  • But it remains critically dependent on the continued credibility of the borrowers and the system
  • The recent "bond rout" would be better described as a long-end bond technical
  • It reflects dwindling pension demand more than existential fears around inflation or debt sustainability
  • Governments should reduce their long-end issuance accordingly
  • Investors should continue to hold steepeners until they do - without necessarily being short duration
  • The more Trump exerts personal control over US organs of state, the more the US' real power is eroded
  • The main mystery is why this is still not being priced into markets
  • Part of the answer revolves around the amorality of capitalism, and prospects for more easy money
  • But much is attributable to the extreme and abrupt nature of credit repricings
  • Commentators argue increasingly that tariffs matter little, and for the return of US and tech exceptionalism
  • But this risks retro-fitting the explanation to the price action
  • An examination of the monetary data points to the exceptional way in which fiscal stimulus has been fuelling equities
  • Free clip from 8 Jul webinar
  • The single greatest force driving modern economies, society and politics is scalability
  • It is the common narrative underlying the dominance of big tech, through to the teen mental health crisis and the rise of political polarization and populism
  • Markets tend to treat scale as a largely linear concept
  • But human systems change character at scale - and ultimately have breaking points
  • Clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions should log in to see the full version
  • The single greatest force driving modern economies, society and politics is scalability
  • It is the common narrative underlying the dominance of big tech, through to the teen mental health crisis and the rise of political polarization and populism
  • Markets tend to treat scale as a largely linear concept
  • But human systems change character at scale - and ultimately have breaking points
  • Like tariffs, Section 899 continues the Trump administration's declaration of economic war against erstwhile allies
  • As with tariffs, there remain considerable questions about the scale and scope of its eventual application
  • But the net effect should still be to cause foreign investors of all types to question their investments in America
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