Skip to content
Recent softness in risk is not just the fault of France
The underlying drivers of the rally have been faltering
The outlook for H2 just darkened considerably
Free clip from first ten minutes of 2 May webinar
The exuberance in risk assets is less a consequence of a stronger economy than a driver of it
The expectation of rate easing was never critical – which is why the exuberance has largely persisted even as yields have backed up
It is instead the direct consequence of investor crowding following easy central bank balance sheet policy – and vulnerable to any reduction in CB liquidity
The latest central bank research on QT is careful, rigorous, and grounded in the literature
Unfortunately its main conclusion – that QE affects markets while QT doesn’t – is at odds with the lived experience of most market participants
There is a much simpler reason why QT has had so little apparent impact
Misunderstanding of this dynamic greatly contributes to the likelihood of future policy mistakes
Free-to-view replay of first segment of 16 Jan webinar
Why strategists struggled in 2023
A better way to think about markets
Implications for 2024
Hark! The VC angels sing
God rest ye, merry crypto bros
While PMs watched tech stocks take flight
I’m dreaming of a tight market
To be sung, please, in a spirit of global harmony
It is often said that QE held down bond yields, meaning QT should be a major contributor to this year’s rise
But the evidence for this is deeply questionable
QE does indeed hold down real yields, through a portfolio balance effect
But it also pushes up inflation breakevens via signalling
What is missing so far from this round of QT is the historical fall in breakevens
The true driver of higher bond yields lies with inflation, not QT
