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Free clip from 22 Oct webinar
The fuel for the rally comes from a mix of fiscal stimulus being channelled into fund flows and financial sector leveraging
But cracks are beginning to appear, from First Brands, to doubts about circular financing in tech, to the flight into gold
To understand the limits of leveraging, look at the fund flows
First ten minutes free to view; full webinar only for clients with Group Webinar and One-on-one subscriptions
Free clip from 8 Jul webinar
The single greatest force driving modern economies, society and politics is scalability
It is the common narrative underlying the dominance of big tech, through to the teen mental health crisis and the rise of political polarization and populism
Markets tend to treat scale as a largely linear concept
But human systems change character at scale – and ultimately have breaking points
Clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions should log in to see the full version
Free excerpt from 11 Apr webinar
It’s not just that tariffs are still not priced
The increasingly alarming price action in Treasuries and the $ threatens to take down other markets
Clients with One-on-One or Group Webinar subscriptions should log in to see the full replay
Free excerpt from 22 Jan webinar
The US economy is indeed exceptional
But the performance of its markets owes just as much to an extraordinary funnelling of fund flows
Dissecting the drivers of these flows sheds crucial light on the durability or otherwise of the risk rally
Free to view by all; full replay available only to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions
A chart of publication titles against price action
Free excerpt from 16 Oct webinar
Markets’ aggressive pricing of a soft landing is matched only by central banks’ determination to provide it
Yet their dovishness masks a switch from rate tightening and balance sheet easing to rate easing and balance sheet tightening
The resultant uncertainty is largely reflected in rates – but leaves opportunities in other markets
Available to all; full replay available only to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions.
Free clip from first ten minutes of 3 July webinar
Even as the rally continues, it does so on ever more fragile foundations
The problem lies neither with the economy, nor with central banks being slow to lower rates, nor even with politics
It is that the liquidity which fuelled markets in H1 looks increasingly likely to be turned off
Recent softness in risk is not just the fault of France
The underlying drivers of the rally have been faltering
The outlook for H2 just darkened considerably
Free clip from first ten minutes of 2 May webinar
The exuberance in risk assets is less a consequence of a stronger economy than a driver of it
The expectation of rate easing was never critical – which is why the exuberance has largely persisted even as yields have backed up
It is instead the direct consequence of investor crowding following easy central bank balance sheet policy – and vulnerable to any reduction in CB liquidity
The latest central bank research on QT is careful, rigorous, and grounded in the literature
Unfortunately its main conclusion – that QE affects markets while QT doesn’t – is at odds with the lived experience of most market participants
There is a much simpler reason why QT has had so little apparent impact
Misunderstanding of this dynamic greatly contributes to the likelihood of future policy mistakes
