Free replay clip: Why are financial conditions so benign?

- Markets seem abnormally exuberant - It's not just the stronger economy - It's the impact of easy money
  • Free clip from first ten minutes of 2 May webinar
  • The exuberance in risk assets is less a consequence of a stronger economy than a driver of it
  • The expectation of rate easing was never critical – which is why the exuberance has largely persisted even as yields have backed up
  • It is instead the direct consequence of investor crowding following easy central bank balance sheet policy – and vulnerable to any reduction in CB liquidity

Free replay clip: Outlook 2024

outlook 2024 webinar snapshot
  • Free-to-view replay of first segment of 16 Jan webinar
  • Why strategists struggled in 2023
  • A better way to think about markets
  • Implications for 2024

Seasonal Satorical Verses (free)

AI-generated central bank christmas scene
  • Hark! The VC angels sing
  • God rest ye, merry crypto bros
  • While PMs watched tech stocks take flight
  • I’m dreaming of a tight market
  • To be sung, please, in a spirit of global harmony

Don’t blame QT for the bond backup (free to view)

QE vs 10y UST nominal
  • It is often said that QE held down bond yields, meaning QT should be a major contributor to this year’s rise
  • But the evidence for this is deeply questionable
  • QE does indeed hold down real yields, through a portfolio balance effect
  • But it also pushes up inflation breakevens via signalling
  • What is missing so far from this round of QT is the historical fall in breakevens
  • The true driver of higher bond yields lies with inflation, not QT
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