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- Free excerpt from 16 Oct webinar
- Markets’ aggressive pricing of a soft landing is matched only by central banks’ determination to provide it
- Yet their dovishness masks a switch from rate tightening and balance sheet easing to rate easing and balance sheet tightening
- The resultant uncertainty is largely reflected in rates – but leaves opportunities in other markets
- Available to all; full replay available only to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions.
- Free clip from first ten minutes of 3 July webinar
- Even as the rally continues, it does so on ever more fragile foundations
- The problem lies neither with the economy, nor with central banks being slow to lower rates, nor even with politics
- It is that the liquidity which fuelled markets in H1 looks increasingly likely to be turned off
- Recent softness in risk is not just the fault of France
- The underlying drivers of the rally have been faltering
- The outlook for H2 just darkened considerably
- Free clip from first ten minutes of 2 May webinar
- The exuberance in risk assets is less a consequence of a stronger economy than a driver of it
- The expectation of rate easing was never critical – which is why the exuberance has largely persisted even as yields have backed up
- It is instead the direct consequence of investor crowding following easy central bank balance sheet policy – and vulnerable to any reduction in CB liquidity
- Free-to-view replay of first segment of 16 Jan webinar
- Why strategists struggled in 2023
- A better way to think about markets
- Implications for 2024
- Hark! The VC angels sing
- God rest ye, merry crypto bros
- While PMs watched tech stocks take flight
- I’m dreaming of a tight market
- To be sung, please, in a spirit of global harmony
- It is often said that QE held down bond yields, meaning QT should be a major contributor to this year’s rise
- But the evidence for this is deeply questionable
- QE does indeed hold down real yields, through a portfolio balance effect
- But it also pushes up inflation breakevens via signalling
- What is missing so far from this round of QT is the historical fall in breakevens
- The true driver of higher bond yields lies with inflation, not QT
