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- Now with added high-frequency charts
- Up-to-date snapshot of the most important flows & liquidity metrics
- CB liquidity vs multiple markets
- Private vs central bank credit
- Mutual fund+ETF flows
- CB balance sheet details
- Our favourite US capital flight chart analytics
- Updated as of date above
- Valuation & positioning metrics for USTs, USD and gold
- Multiple markets are in melt-up – and for fifteen years, momentum has trumped mean reversion
- This feels instinctively unhealthy, and rightly so: crowding and herding really are at extremes across asset classes
- But it is not the sell signal it seems – neither for indices, nor for Momentum itself
- What crowding changes is the tail, not the trend: the real risk is a correlation spike
- The outlook for AI continues to dominate markets
- But the best insights come from first-hand experience
- This piece is free to view
- Full replay of 28 Apr webinar
- From oil above $120 to a Fed Chair who can’t trust a “closed” investigation, short term is driven by war and whim
- But the slide towards lawlessness is structural — not just Trump, not just populists
- Investors keep wanting to assume continuity in a world where the rules themselves have become negotiable
- First 15 minutes free to view; full version only for clients with Group Webinar and One-on-one subscriptions
- Free clip from 28 Apr webinar
- From oil above $120 to a Fed Chair who can’t trust a “closed” investigation, short term is driven by war and whim
- But the slide towards lawlessness is structural — not just Trump, not just populists
- Investors keep wanting to assume continuity in a world where the rules themselves have become negotiable
- First 15 minutes free to view; full version only for clients with Group Webinar and One-on-one subscriptions
- It’s not just the fog of war
- The drivers of lawlessness are structural
- Implications for investors
- The turmoil in markets says as much about positioning as it does
about stagflationary risks or the mercuriality of President Trump
- The immediate flight into $ cash reflects the unwind of active
positions
- But beneath the surface – and gold’s dramatic fall notwithstanding –
the US’ safe-haven status is visibly fraying
