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- Like tariffs, Section 899 continues the Trump administration’s declaration of economic war against erstwhile allies
- As with tariffs, there remain considerable questions about the scale and scope of its eventual application
- But the net effect should still be to cause foreign investors of all types to question their investments in America
- Even before Trump’s EU tariff tweets, the risk rally had seemed unconvincing
- This is in part because bond market developments are so concerning
- But we think there are better ways to position than outright shorts in 30y govies
- The bounceback in risk is unconvincing
- This is in part because of overoptimism that tariffs and economic pain can be avoided
- It is also because sentiment across markets has moved much more than actual positions
- But ultimately it is because Hemingway’s famous quip applies as much to reserve currencies as to personal bankruptcy
- Full replay of 11 Apr webinar
- It’s not just that tariffs are still not priced
- The increasingly alarming price action in Treasuries and the $ threatens to take down other markets
- Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions; Read-only clients have access to first section only
- Free excerpt from 11 Apr webinar
- It’s not just that tariffs are still not priced
- The increasingly alarming price action in Treasuries and the $ threatens to take down other markets
- Clients with One-on-One or Group Webinar subscriptions should log in to see the full replay
