Global QT: what central banks haven’t learned

fed reserves vs equities 6m chg
  • The latest central bank research on QT is careful, rigorous, and grounded in the literature
  • Unfortunately its main conclusion – that QE affects markets while QT doesn’t – is at odds with the lived experience of most market participants
  • There is a much simpler reason why QT has had so little apparent impact
  • Misunderstanding of this dynamic greatly contributes to the likelihood of future policy mistakes
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