Webinar: Why are financial conditions so benign? old

- Markets seem abnormally exuberant - It's not just the stronger economy - It's the impact of easy money
  • Webinar Thu 2 May 1430 Lon / 0930 NY
  • The exuberance in risk assets is not just a consequence of a stronger economy, but a driver of it
  • The expectation of rate easing was never a main driver – which is why it has largely persisted even as yields have backed up
  • It is instead the direct consequence of investor crowding following easy central bank balance sheet policy – and vulnerable to any reduction in CB liquidity
  • Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions, and to the press

Webinar: The yield is not enough

presentation outline
  • Webinar Wed 1 Nov 1600 Lon / 1200 NY
  • Is the mini-correction in markets a foretaste of something bigger, or does the still-strong real economy give risk assets scope to bounce back?
  • Should investors be rotating out of equities and into bonds, or are the latter still vulnerable to buyers’ strikes against a backdrop of fiscal indiscipline?
  • Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions, and to the press

Distributional accounts

bottom 50pct real net worth

This is a test of various chart sizes. Deposits – especially in real terms – have been falling sharply, and those for the bottom quintiles are now back to pre-Covid levels. This is now 900×700, the full size original: Nevertheless, what’s striking to me is how much they’ve risen in general – especially during the […]

BoJ is only central bank still buying

boj balance sheet items
  • This blog post needs some bullets
  • Otherwise it won’t display correctly
  • This should do the trick nicely, even if the last bullet is a little long
  • Real yields decoupling

    growth equities vs real yields
  • Real yields and growth equities used to move together
  • But now that relationship has broken down
  • The reason has to do with money flows
  • Capital flight from China

    china balance of payments
  • Capital is leaving China at a record rate
  • This is the second item on my list
  • If this works it will look cool
  • BoJ is only central bank still buying

    boj balance sheet items
  • This blog post needs some bullets
  • Otherwise it won’t display correctly
  • This should do the trick nicely, even if the last bullet is a little long
  • Real yields decoupling

    growth equities vs real yields
  • Real yields and growth equities used to move together
  • But now that relationship has broken down
  • The reason has to do with money flows
  • Capital flight from China

    china balance of payments
  • Capital is leaving China at a record rate
  • This is the second item on my list
  • If this works it will look cool
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