Skip to content
Street forecasts for a 2026 show a remarkable consensus
This is completely at odds with elevated real-world uncertainty
The gap reflects markets’ struggle to price potential for regime change as institutions and assets are pushed towards breaking points
The trick for investors is to find positions which are robust to regime change before it becomes everyone’s forecast
Our favourite US capital flight chart analytics
Updated as of date above
Valuation & positioning metrics for USTs, USD and gold
Now with added high-frequency charts
Up-to-date snapshot of the most important flows & liquidity metrics
CB liquidity vs multiple markets
Private vs central bank credit
Mutual fund+ETF flows
CB balance sheet details
The fuel for the rally comes neither from rates, nor from fundamentals, nor from central bank liquidity
It stems from a mix of fiscal stimulus being channelled into fund flows and financial sector leveraging
The resultant mix of too much money chasing too few assets both suppresses risk premia and postpones credit events – to a point
But it remains critically dependent on the continued credibility of the borrowers and the system
The single greatest force driving modern economies, society and politics is scalability
It is the common narrative underlying the dominance of big tech, through to the teen mental health crisis and the rise of political polarization and populism
Markets tend to treat scale as a largely linear concept
But human systems change character at scale – and ultimately have breaking points
The tariff-man cometh
Of net balances and gross misunderstandings
Assessing the damage
Where consensus sees US exceptionalism
We see a funnelling of fund flows
Here’s how to trade it
Markets’ aggressive pricing of a soft landing is matched only by central banks’ determination to provide it
Yet their dovishness masks a switch from rate tightening and balance sheet easing to rate easing and balance sheet tightening
The resultant uncertainty is largely reflected in rates – but leaves opportunities in other markets
Recent softness in risk is not just the fault of France
The underlying drivers of the rally have been faltering
The outlook for H2 just darkened considerably
Financial conditions have eased to the same levels as 2007
This comes in spite of central banks thinking they are running restrictive policy
The nature and timing of the market moves suggest these not so much reflect or anticipate the strength of the economy as drive it
Their ultimate cause is easy balance sheet policy having crowded investors into risk
Misunderstanding of these dynamics increases the likelihood of bubbles and subsequent busts
