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- Full replay of 16 Oct webinar
- Markets’ aggressive pricing of a soft landing is matched only by central banks’ determination to provide it
- Yet their dovishness masks a switch from rate tightening and balance sheet easing to rate easing and balance sheet tightening
- The resultant uncertainty is largely reflected in rates – but leaves opportunities in other markets
- Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions; Read-only clients have access to first section only
- Full replay of 3 July webinar with Q&A
- Even as the rally continues, it does so on ever more fragile foundations
- The problem lies neither with the economy, nor with central banks being slow to lower rates, nor even with politics
- It is that the liquidity which fuelled markets in H1 looks increasingly likely to be turned off
- Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions, and to the press
- Full replay of 2 May webinar with Q&A
- The exuberance in risk assets is less a consequence of a stronger economy than a driver of it
- The expectation of rate easing was never critical – which is why the exuberance has largely persisted even as yields have backed up
- It is instead the direct consequence of investor crowding following easy central bank balance sheet policy – and vulnerable to any reduction in CB liquidity
- Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions, and to the press
- Full replay from 16 Jan webinar with Q&A
- Why strategists struggled in 2023
- A better way to think about markets
- Implications for 2024
- Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions, and to the press
- Is the mini-correction in markets a foretaste of something bigger, or does the still-strong real economy give risk assets scope to bounce back?
- Should investors be rotating out of equities and into bonds, or are the latter still vulnerable to buyers’ strikes against a backdrop of fiscal indiscipline?
- Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions
