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Full replay of 28 Apr webinar
From oil above $120 to a Fed Chair who can’t trust a “closed” investigation, short term is driven by war and whim
But the slide towards lawlessness is structural — not just Trump, not just populists
Investors keep wanting to assume continuity in a world where the rules themselves have become negotiable
First 15 minutes free to view; full version only for clients with Group Webinar and One-on-one subscriptions
Full replay of 23 Jan webinar
Consensus around 2026 forecasts is completely at odds with real-world uncertainty
The trick for investors is finding ways to position for underpriced regime change risks without simply disinvesting
First 15 minutes free to view; full version only for clients with Group Webinar and One-on-one subscriptions
Full replay of 22 Oct webinar
The fuel for the rally comes from a mix of fiscal stimulus being channelled into fund flows and financial sector leveraging
But cracks are beginning to appear, from First Brands, to doubts about circular financing in tech, to the flight into gold
To understand the limits of leveraging, look at the fund flows
First third free to view; full version only for clients with Group Webinar and One-on-one subscriptions
Full replay of 8 Jul webinar
The single greatest force driving modern economies, society and politics is scalability
It is the common narrative underlying the dominance of big tech, through to the teen mental health crisis and the rise of political polarization and populism
Markets tend to treat scale as a largely linear concept
But human systems change character at scale – and ultimately have breaking points
Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions, and to the press
Full replay of 11 Apr webinar
It’s not just that tariffs are still not priced
The increasingly alarming price action in Treasuries and the $ threatens to take down other markets
Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions; Read-only clients have access to first section only
Full replay of 22 Jan webinar
The US economy is indeed exceptional
But the performance of its markets owes just as much to an extraordinary funnelling of fund flows
Dissecting the drivers of these flows sheds crucial light on the durability or otherwise of the risk rally
Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions; Read-only clients have access to first section only
Full replay of 16 Oct webinar
Markets’ aggressive pricing of a soft landing is matched only by central banks’ determination to provide it
Yet their dovishness masks a switch from rate tightening and balance sheet easing to rate easing and balance sheet tightening
The resultant uncertainty is largely reflected in rates – but leaves opportunities in other markets
Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions; Read-only clients have access to first section only
Full replay of 3 July webinar with Q&A
Even as the rally continues, it does so on ever more fragile foundations
The problem lies neither with the economy, nor with central banks being slow to lower rates, nor even with politics
It is that the liquidity which fuelled markets in H1 looks increasingly likely to be turned off
Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions, and to the press
Full replay of 2 May webinar with Q&A
The exuberance in risk assets is less a consequence of a stronger economy than a driver of it
The expectation of rate easing was never critical – which is why the exuberance has largely persisted even as yields have backed up
It is instead the direct consequence of investor crowding following easy central bank balance sheet policy – and vulnerable to any reduction in CB liquidity
Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions, and to the press
Full replay from 16 Jan webinar with Q&A
Why strategists struggled in 2023
A better way to think about markets
Implications for 2024
Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions, and to the press
