Matt King – Page 4 – Satori Insights

Bloomberg Radio slot on US capital flight

Full replay of 11 Apr webinar
It’s not just that tariffs are still not priced
The increasingly alarming price action in Treasuries and the $ threatens to take down other markets
Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions; Read-only clients have access to first section only

Free excerpt from 11 Apr webinar
It’s not just that tariffs are still not priced
The increasingly alarming price action in Treasuries and the $ threatens to take down other markets
Clients with One-on-One or Group Webinar subscriptions should log in to see the full replay

The announced headline tariff rates are all over the place
But tariffs in general are more punitive than consensus expected, even after the inclusion of VAT
The immediate market response is being clouded by liquidity factors

Despite all the attention to tariffs, short-term market moves remain surprisingly well correlated with CB liquidity
Liquidity dynamics have the potential to amplify any T-Day relief rally
But we would still fade any such move thereafter

It is remarkable that proposals for a Mar-a-Lago accord have not yet sparked an even greater flight out of US dollars, debt, and risk
That they have not yet done so is thanks to a mix of incredulity, inertia, and temporary liquidity factors
Current account deficits, though a source of vulnerability, are in many respects a measure of attractiveness to foreign capital
What’s damaging is when – as in the US – they are allowed to turn into ever-escalating debt
What the Mar-a-Lago proposals’ discussion of sticks and carrots lacks is a proper notion of trust – and of the scale and suddennness of the consequences once it has been lost