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Our favourite US capital flight chart analytics
Updated as of date above
Valuation & positioning metrics for USTs, USD and gold
Now with added high-frequency charts
Up-to-date snapshot of the most important flows & liquidity metrics
CB liquidity vs multiple markets
Private vs central bank credit
Mutual fund+ETF flows
CB balance sheet details
US repo rates have already spiked beyond year-end levels
The squeeze seems likely to continue – and intensify – while the US government shutdown does
The immediate consequences are $-positive and risk-negative – but mostly point to a deeper unwind of crowded hedge fund positions
In a narrow technical sense, the FOMC was indeed hawkish
But in the cessation of QT and through questions, it more broadly reconfirmed a reaction function at once deeply asymmetric and completely oblivious to asset price inflation
This paves the way for a further melt-up in risk assets and havens – and for more assets to exhibit the sort of exponential sawtooth boom-bust recently seen in gold
Full replay of 22 Oct webinar
The fuel for the rally comes from a mix of fiscal stimulus being channelled into fund flows and financial sector leveraging
But cracks are beginning to appear, from First Brands, to doubts about circular financing in tech, to the flight into gold
To understand the limits of leveraging, look at the fund flows
First third free to view; full version only for clients with Group Webinar and One-on-one subscriptions
Free clip from 22 Oct webinar
The fuel for the rally comes from a mix of fiscal stimulus being channelled into fund flows and financial sector leveraging
But cracks are beginning to appear, from First Brands, to doubts about circular financing in tech, to the flight into gold
To understand the limits of leveraging, look at the fund flows
First ten minutes free to view; full webinar only for clients with Group Webinar and One-on-one subscriptions
The fuel for the rally comes neither from rates, nor from fundamentals, nor from central bank liquidity
It stems from a mix of fiscal stimulus being channelled into fund flows and financial sector leveraging
The resultant mix of too much money chasing too few assets both suppresses risk premia and postpones credit events – to a point
But it remains critically dependent on the continued credibility of the borrowers and the system
