Matt King – Satori Insights

Webinar: Throwing bad money after good

Webinar Fri 23 Jan 1430 Lon / 0930 NY
Street forecasts for 2026 show a remarkable consensus
This is completely at odds with elevated real-world uncertainty
The gap reflects markets’ struggle to price potential for regime change as institutions and assets are pushed towards breaking points
The trick for investors is to find positions which are robust to regime change before it becomes everyone’s forecast
Open to clients with Group Webinar or One-on-One subscriptions, and to the press

Street forecasts for a 2026 show a remarkable consensus
This is completely at odds with elevated real-world uncertainty
The gap reflects markets’ struggle to price potential for regime change as institutions and assets are pushed towards breaking points
The trick for investors is to find positions which are robust to regime change before it becomes everyone’s forecast

The more markets rise, the greater is the gap to consumer sentiment
We are used to explaining this in terms of a K-shaped economy
But together with record profit share and margins and the narrowness of the equity rally, it is also consistent with monopolization, regulatory capture and enshittification
This helps explain why not only labour but also consumers are suffering, implies a critical role for politics – and ultimately paints a more fragile picture of society collapsing towards technofeudalism

Markets are reeling from a monetary triple whammy: repo tightness, a faltering of other forms of credit creation, and a record $900bn in reserves drainage
But all these sources of monetary tightness ought to ease
The question is whether this episode drives a more enduring reduction in risk appetite and fund flows

US repo rates have already spiked beyond year-end levels
The squeeze seems likely to continue – and intensify – while the US government shutdown does
The immediate consequences are $-positive and risk-negative – but mostly point to a deeper unwind of crowded hedge fund positions